基于物联网的重离子加速器状态诊断系统研究与设计

为更好地保障中国科学院近代物理研究所重离子加速器（HIRFL）的稳定运行，本文研究设计了基于物联网的状态诊断系统。针对HIRFL中设备数量庞大、种类复杂的特点，采用物联网的设计架构，利用各种传感器进行数据采集，并通过网络传输给中央控制系统中的数据库，由服务器中运行的控制软件对这些数据进行综合分析，给出合理的建议并发出相应的指令。根据HIRFL的实际情况，初步设计了1个HIRFL状态诊断系统模型，包括底层的硬件设计和上层的软件设计以及界面设计。部分控制界面已上线运行，并在实际运行中得到了检验，取得了一定的加速器状态诊断效果。     

基于时间延迟的多类型维修与经济生产批量联合优化研究

针对目前未能较好的综合考虑多维修类型与经济生产批量联合优化的问题，首先考虑多类型维修关系，基于时间延迟理论求出故障和缺陷次数的表达式；其次，在此基础上，综合考虑生产费用和维修费用的基础上，构建了多类型维修和经济生产批量联合优化模型，以单位时间内总费用最小为优化目标，获得最优检查间隔期和经济生产批量；最后，通过算例分析验证了模型的有效性，说明了第一类缺陷检查次数的多少对费用和经济生产批量影响不大。     

Eliciting and measuring hesitance in decision-making

Hesitance is an innate human psychological phenomenon pervasive in our daily life. Although it is very complex and still not fully understood, there have been many studies related to this interesting topic. In this study, we proposed two fundamental problems about hesitance: the first is the generating problem, which is related to how to elicit hesitance information from human thinking; the second is the measuring problem, which is related to how to devise effective and reasonable methods to measure hesitance degrees from given hesitance information. With these two fundamental questions, we first discussed and analyzed several examples in real life involving hesitance, showing that it can indeed be recorded and represented. Then we roughly classified the hesitance information into two major classes: static hesitance and dynamic hesitance. Some simple and interesting methods were proposed to elicit hesitance, and more reasonable methods were proposed to measure the hesitance degree from the two classes of hesitance information. All methods that have been discussed in this study try to avoid complexity in every aspect while reserving strictness and reasonability; therefore, the present study provides suitable information for practitioners with different backgrounds.     

Improved CCM for variable causality detection in complex systems

Convergent cross-mapping (CCM), has been largely implemented for variable causality detection in complex systems like chemical process. However, this method is susceptible to problems regarding parameter selection and threshold determination. The synchronization phenomenon and the Moran effect, which are two interference terms in causality detection, must also be addressed. Therefore, an improved CCM is proposed to overcome these limitations in this paper. In the improved CCM, the optimal embedding dimension is selected based on the pseudo-nearest-neighbor theory. Also, Monte Carlo simulation is adopted to evaluate the convergence threshold. Next, by using the defined time delay detection function, the synchronization phenomenon and the Moran effect are identified to reduce the interference terms and further improve the accuracy. Finally, the improved CCM method is applied in a numerical example and a hydrocracking process to demonstrate its feasibility and superior performance than other methods.     

On the Codd semantics of SQL nulls

Theoretical models used in database research often have subtle differences with those occurring in practice. One particular mismatch that is usually neglected concerns the use of marked nulls to represent missing values in theoretical models of incompleteness, while in an SQL database these are all denoted by the same syntactic

object. It is commonly argued that results obtained in the model with marked nulls carry over to SQL, because SQL nulls can be interpreted as Codd nulls, which are simply marked nulls that do not repeat. This argument, however, does not take into account that even simple queries may produce answers where distinct occurrences of

do in fact denote the same unknown value. For such queries, interpreting SQL nulls as Codd nulls would incorrectly change the semantics of query answers. To use results about Codd nulls for real-life SQL queries, we need to understand which queries preserve the Codd interpretation of SQL nulls. We show, however, that the class of relational algebra queries preserving Codd interpretation is not recursively enumerable, which necessitates looking for sufficient conditions for such preservation. Those can be obtained by exploiting the information provided by NOT NULL constraints on the database schema. We devise mild syntactic restrictions on queries that guarantee preservation, do not limit the full expressiveness of queries on databases without nulls, and can be checked efficiently.     

基于ARIMA和BP神经网络的生态系统服务价值预测仿真

针对现有生态系统服务价值预测体系误差大、研究不足等问题,本文构建了面向未来生态服务价值的预测机制。该机制采用主成分分析法和Person相关系数法,建立了以GDP、人口、土地利用率、土地管理政策和城市人口密度为驱动力的生态系统服务价值关联矩阵,提出了基于ARIMA和BP神经网络的生态系统服务价值的时间序列预测机制。为验证预测机制有效性,本文选取中国主要土地利用类型代表省份的真实土地数据集进行分析,研究结果表明本文建立的预测模型平均绝对误差仅为0.023,且从预测结果来看,未来草地生态会向较好趋势发展,林地生态发展不容乐观。     

某铅锌矿的三维地质模型及储量估算

针对矿山现有的地质信息数据等，建立了以利用Surpac软件的三维地表模型、矿体模型及地质数据库，对矿山资源储量进行计算。基于地质统计学的理论，建立某铅锌矿地表模型、钻孔数据库、矿体模型、块体模型，对矿体内样品进行组合分析统计，采用幂次距离反比法对块体品位进行估值，最后根据国内对地质矿产资源的分类方法，按照不同边界品位、工业品位等分类依据，得出资源储量核实报告，为铅锌矿的后续生产，提供了可靠保证。结果表明：通过构建该矿地质数据库，建立的三维模型，可对地质工程、采矿工程、储量估算、矿石品位动态管理等提供技术支持。     

Why stop after 20 minutes? Breaks and target prevalence in a 60-minute X-ray baggage screening task

Current EU regulation restricts continuously reviewing X-ray images of passenger baggage to 20-min duration as a precautionary measure to prevent performance decrements in airport security officers (screeners). However, this 20-min limit is not based on clear empirical evidence on how well screeners can sustain their performance over time. Our study tested screeners in a 60-min simulated X-ray cabin baggage screening task. One group took 10-min breaks after 20 min of screening; the other group worked without breaks. We found no decrease in performance over 60 min in either group. Breaks did not affect performance, but they did reduce the amount of subjective distress. By varying target prevalence, we found that d_a with a slope of about 0.6 is a more valid measure of detection performance than d'. Target prevalence caused a criterion shift. Our results provide a basis for conducting field studies of prolonged screening durations, and open the discussion on whether more flexible break policies and work schedules should be considered.     

An improved damage diagnostic technique based on Singular Spectrum Analysis and time series models

An approach to enhance the sensitivity of the damage index using the prediction errors of autoregressive – autoregressive exogenous models by augmenting Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) to detect and locate minor damage is presented. Numerical simulation studies are carried out by considering a simply supported beam with single and multiple cracks. An experimental study on a reinforced cement concrete beam has been carried out to validate the technique using different levels of damage. The studies emphasise that the SSA improves the sensitivity of the damage index for detection and also localisation, handling environmental/operational variability and measurement noise.     

基于多变量时间序列及向量自回归机器学习模型的水驱油藏产量预测方法

提出了一种基于多变量时间序列(MTS)及向量自回归(VAR)机器学习模型的水驱油藏产量预测方法,并进行了实例应用。该方法在井网分析的基础上通过MTS分析对注采井组数据进行优选,并将井组内不同采出井产油量及注入井注水量作为彼此相关的时间序列,通过建立VAR模型从多个时间序列中提取出相互作用规律,挖掘注采井间流量的依赖关系从而进行产量预测。水驱油藏历史生产数据分析结果表明,与数值模拟历史拟合结果相比,机器学习模型产量预测结果具有更高精度,同时不确定性分析提升了预测结果的安全性。通过脉冲响应分析对注入井的采油贡献量进行评价,可为注水开发方案调整提供理论指导。